Testnet · Live contracts · Not investment advice.
stxmarkets

Index

Theses

Written views on world events, each expressed as long and short legs and settled in sBTC.
8 Theses

8 Theses · 6 open · 1 resolving · 1 resolved

Why this matters: the same weights, NAV and state remain visible in either view.

Regulatory · 200dOpen

Rulebook Rally

Clear market-structure rules unlock institutional flows into Bitcoin and its L2s.

L · BTC 60% · STX 40%S · DXY 100%

NAV

0.001142

7d

+3.1%

30d

+11.4%
desk.stxmarkets.btc · illustrative identity · CoreILLUSTRATIVEStaking yield
Climate · 120dOpen

Harvest Shock

Heat and drought cut grain yields, pushing agricultural prices higher into winter.

L · WHEAT 50% · CORN 50%S · SPX 100%

NAV

0.001080

7d

+2.6%

30d

+8.9%
fieldnotes.btc · illustrative identity · CommunityILLUSTRATIVEStaking yield
Geopolitics · 90dOpen

Chokepoint Premium

Disruption at major shipping chokepoints will keep freight and energy risk premia elevated over the next quarter.

L · BRENT 50% · XAU 50%S · SPX 60% · EUR 40%

NAV

0.001090

7d

+1.8%

30d

+6.4%
desk.stxmarkets.btc · illustrative identity · CoreILLUSTRATIVEStaking yield
Monetary · 180dOpen

Hard Money Drift

Central banks continue diversifying reserves away from the dollar toward gold and hard assets.

L · XAU 60% · BTC 40%S · DXY 100%

NAV

0.001175

7d

+0.9%

30d

+4.1%
desk.stxmarkets.btc · illustrative identity · CoreILLUSTRATIVEStaking yield
Macro · 270dOpen

Grid Before GPUs

Power and grid infrastructure, not chips, becomes the binding constraint on AI buildout.

L · UTIL 55% · URA 45%S · SOX 100%

NAV

0.001176

7d

−0.6%

30d

+2.2%
voltage.btc · illustrative identity · CommunityILLUSTRATIVE
Geopolitics · 150dOpen

Ceasefire Dividend

A durable de-escalation lifts regional equities and compresses energy risk premia.

L · EEM 60% · EUR 40%S · BRENT 100%

NAV

0.000997

7d

+0.4%

30d

+1.3%
olivebranch.btc · illustrative identity · CommunityILLUSTRATIVE
Cyber · 60dResolved

Patch Tuesday

A major infrastructure cyber incident drives demand for security names and safe havens.

L · HACK 70% · XAU 30%S · NDX 100%

NAV

0.001022

7d

−0.3%

30d

+0.8%
redteam.btc · illustrative identity · CommunityILLUSTRATIVE
Monetary · 120dResolving

Rate Cliff

Policy rates fall faster than futures imply as labor data softens.

L · TLT 70% · XAU 30%S · DXY 100%

NAV

0.000971

7d

−1.2%

30d

−2.7%
desk.stxmarkets.btc · illustrative identity · CoreILLUSTRATIVEStaking yield