Thesis markets on Bitcoin · Testnet
Back your view of the world. Settle in Bitcoin.
Thesis Notes are transparent long/short positions on world events, deposited and settled in sBTC. Every weight, rebalance and resolution is written to a Bitcoin-anchored contract you can read.
How it works
01
Signal
An event surfaces on the Atlas with sourced signals and a severity score.
Why this matters: Signals make the written view inspectable.
Red Sea transit disruption · severity 5
ILLUSTRATIVE02
Thesis
A curator writes a view: long and short legs, a horizon, a resolution condition.
Why this matters: Weights define your exposure.
Chokepoint Premium · long Brent, short SPX
ILLUSTRATIVE03
Note
You mint a Note in sBTC. A signed receipt of the thesis is written at mint.
Why this matters: NAV determines how many units a deposit buys.
0.01 sBTC deposit at an example NAV of 0.001142
ILLUSTRATIVE04
Resolution
The Note settles when the condition is met or at the deadline block.
Why this matters: A declared rule limits discretion at settlement.
Rulebook Rally · bill signed into law or block #215,000
ILLUSTRATIVEVerification
What you can verify
sBTC settlement
Notes are deposited and settled in sBTC on Stacks.
Why this matters: Settlement units and fee outflows are visible.
Check it →Readable contracts
Clarity is interpreted, not compiled. What you read is what runs.
Why this matters: The deployed rules are available for inspection.
Check it →Yield on idle collateral
Staking is not yet live on testnet. Yield is variable and not guaranteed.
Why this matters: Opt-in and variable rewards should be checked separately.
Check it →Verifiable receipts
Every weight, rebalance and resolution leaves a hash anyone can check.
Why this matters: A receipt can be compared with the indexed contract record.
Check it →Fees
How we are paid
Mint fee 0%
10% of profit, only at cash-out
Split on-chain: curator · partner · STX.AI Treasury
Mint fee 0%. Performance fee 10% of profit at cash-out. No profit, no fee. These are the defaults. Current fee settings are not available yet.
Why this matters: A referral divides our fee. It does not change the holder's fee.
DELAYEDNot read yetSee the fee ledgerFeatured
Open Theses
Chokepoint Premium
Disruption at major shipping chokepoints will keep freight and energy risk premia elevated over the next quarter.
NAV
0.001090
7d
+1.8%30d
+6.4%Hard Money Drift
Central banks continue diversifying reserves away from the dollar toward gold and hard assets.
NAV
0.001175
7d
+0.9%30d
+4.1%Rulebook Rally
Clear market-structure rules unlock institutional flows into Bitcoin and its L2s.
NAV
0.001142
7d
+3.1%30d
+11.4%Contracts
thesis-vault · thesis-registry · resolver
Audit status
Not yet audited
Oracles
Pyth (pull) · DIA
Network
Stacks testnet
Questions